Wednesday, January 2, 2013

LENR OUTLOOK 2013




I have dedicated to Cold Fusion then LENR then HHENI almost a third of my (professional) life time and therefore I am very dedicated to it and I have huge expectations for/from it. It is not necessary any mental effort for me to perform kind of personification of LENR and to wish it, at this New Year celebration, the classic:

Vivat, crescat, floreat LENR! 
(i.e. May it live, grow and flourish!)

Please allow me a few predictions (risky)  and some ideas that, I dare to think- could be useful for attaining the three wishes for LENR earlier or easier or better using a proper problem solving strategy. A radically new strategy- the leitmotif of this essay and of all other LENR writings published this year on my blog is Paradigm Shift. Paradigm Shift ASAP!

VIVAT!

LENR is alive and hopefully will be very well, soon. Taking in consideration how attacked, oppressed and ignored this scientific field was and still is- a secular miracle created and sustained by a group of scientists, researchers, journalists and science writers. You can find the names of these special people in the 2013 History of Cold Fusion Calendar a historical piece, a treasure: created by our enthusiastic young lady colleague, Ruby Carat:
http://coldfusionnow.org/store/2013-history-of-cold-fusion-calendar/  Founders, heroes, martyrs, dreamers, achievers- many combinations of these. The survival of the Cold Fusion idea is their work and achievement. Many variants were created so perhaps it is justified the use the logically flawed and grammatically incorrect LENRs for these. Rich, diversified life however only very slowly evoluting to the superior form aimed from the very start-a practical energy source.

CRESCAT! .

There are great, old, nasty problems with the growing of LENR.
A significant event, this morning one of our best creative thinkers and experimenters, Brian Ahern gave a good formulation of the problem:

LENR or LANR has consistently failed to meet two conditions: 
1. HIGH LEVEL OF REPRODUCIBILITY
2. useful levels of heat output
My favorite partner for discussions, Abd (see the list of links appended to this essay) an encyclopedic scholar of LENR has asked that reproducibility should be replaced by reliability as we have used it too in our long discussions. Actually reliability is more subjective and bad reproducibility is the objective ugly fact and the curse of the field.

More technologically speaking, LENR experiments give low intensity, short duration and practically uncontrollable heat.
The mission: scale-up seems to be almost impossible.
There had been many disparate successes however the next step(s)
were not made – no follow-up, not improvements, not development- finita la tragedia!

About scale-up:
Scale-up is vital for technology’
Scale-up is not simply growing in space and time, it is not only quantitative, it is qualitative too; it is achieving of some necessary technological virtues, the sine qua non components of usability
Scale-up is the technological equivalent of maturization. Life is sometimes cruel and so can be technology. An adult is not an over dimensional child. Believe me this is not a forced analogy.
Many times scale-up is an ordeal, even a wicked problem, scaling up can be non-linear and non-continuous, and it can be sad reality that not all processes can be scaled up.
It is technologically naïve to believe that if you can get a bit of excess heat then in a few simple steps you will launch a good energy source on the market.

Some processes seem to suffer of technological nanism, dwarfism- a great trouble and you well know that desperate sicknesses need desperate remedies. Desperate is a toxic word, so we will speak about radical remedies. Nothing frightening actually, but great changes are necessary.

Using the personification idea, what we have to do is to make LENR more intelligent, more serious, more realistic, more pragmatic and more materialistic than it is now.
Take in consideration that these qualities are related, combined, in part superposed! It’s more radical than it sounds.

Some of the players in the field have already made huge progresses in this direction but their idea are not accepted and memefied yet. 2013 will be the year when this happens on greater scale.
Let’s discuss systematically:

Make LENR more intelligent: 
I use the following definition for intelligence: “Intelligence is the ability to not mix the points of view” (Mihail Ralea) This means to make proper distinctions, - you can find a list of those in my 2012 writings. For example:
- existence (scientific) is not usability (technological):
-  excess heat is not an energy source;
- applied science is not a technology;

But all can be if you discover how to do it!!!
- LENR is not LENR+, it is an essential, decisive difference and we have to find out what this is. Only LENR+ can be really scaled up
- LENR is almost natural, LENR + is very artificial, man-made

(I feel it is strange that > 98% of my colleagues and friends do NOT believe in the existence of LENR+ but I bet this will change in 2013. What is even worse I was not attacked for my unorthodox ideas, very disturbing)

There are many other non specific, however important differences, we have to distinguish between things:

- a patent and know-how,

- history and experience are not sources of universal solutions, many times you have to invent and work put absolutely new ones;

- fundraising is not a complete solution just a start that obliges and enslaves:

- if somebody has an opinion different or even contrary to yours in issues not connected to morality! this makes the person NOT your enemy but your partner for discussions; (this is, psychologically the most difficult distinction)

In his kind anticipated comment, John Allen has called the attention to the idea that disruptive effects have to be avoided and
that it is intelligent to accept that during development, besides many real problems imaginary, bureaucratic and even false problems bound to rules, law, names, enviro (hysteria) issues are in need of solitiuons too. (this is also realism).

Will LENR become more intelligent in 2013?  Will the smarter memes remove the inert memes? Perhaps some much awaited achievements of LENR will induce a peculiar Flynn Effect in the field- see
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flynn_effect
The human Flynn Effect is long term and slow, LENR’s IQ has to increase molto allegro.

Make LENR more serious.
I use the following definition for the adjective “serious": "To be serious means to be focused on the core of the things and not on the undefined halo of trivia hovering around them"(Mihail Ralea)

The true core of LENR is energy and I think/hope this will be in the center of the attention and of the research activity in 2013. However there are many scientists who, despite the lack of a theory and despite the crazy experimental situation try to discover something fundamentally new and important scientifically.

I have published a paper: “Why Technology First?” in the very first issue of “Infinite Energy” and I will never abandon and change from this kind of focusing. This is contrasting with the popular idea that we have the duty, as scientists to invest all our creative energies in understanding LENR, create a very good theory and use it to build a good technology. I have written a lot about why I consider this idealistic and impossible and recently I have concluded that a hybrid approach is the unique serious and realistic way to LENR applications. Fortunately, the serious meme “Physics is experimental” is making progresses recently in our circles.
During 2013 LENR will be increasingly serious and successful, I hope this is more emphasis will put on LENR+.

Make LENR more realistic 

Realistic LENR has many aspects. One of these, better to be avoided in this discussion, is the understanding of the contribution of the inner, seemingly inherent weaknesses of LENR to its bad reputation, low popularity and even rejection.
To negate something is always easier than to create something.
We must solve our problems at any price; otherwise LENR will remain interesting but technologically sterile.
LENR is very complex and this idea must become part of our modes of thinking and research strategies. It is very sad for the LENR theories that will lose from their elegance and mathematical beauty. Dynamicity and diversity are combined with complexity and this reality will lead to events and concepts described by new words like theoricide and theoriplexes.
 I hope that in 2013 Defkalion’s fundamental analytical data will
be used to the creation of a superior complete, predictive and even productive theory of LENR. In which extent this theory will be valid for the classic LENR, I have no idea. I think that Pd-D and Ni-H are different processes- Occam’s Razor has lost its edge in this case. Some of my best friends disagree strongly. I hope we will see one day the truth, Nature votes for unity or for its own richness?

Make LENR more pragmatic

Suppose you are a high jump coach and your athletes obtain lousy performances? What will you do, try to motivate them, learn them to run faster, move swifter, explain them the wonderful logic of the Fosbury Flop, and stimulate them to exercise…
Or put the bar lower? (In education and in culture sometimes and in some places “to bury the bar deeper)
I know that this is a clumsy and unjust analogy for increasing the precision of measurement but only for the first, say 5 heroic years when Cold Fusion had to fight for survival by demonstrating it exists. Later it became necessary to enhance the reactions and to obtain very convincing effects without using the high art of calorimetry. LENR was unable to do this before being converted in LENR+. Was this due to errors or to the karma of the LENR systems?

Make LENR more materialistic

Or, simply much better funded? The lifeblood of research and development is Money and LENR needs funding. Let’s hope 2013 will a generous year and let’s discuss how this money will be wisely, effectively and efficiently spent.  It suffices that one system to demonstrate its practical value and money will come to LENR
And very soon a lot of innovative systems will start to compete for a huge market. The LENR pioneers will become rich, very rich.
The field will flourish, but I m not sure this will start this year.


FLOURISH!

Many sources, a broad range of temperatures, perhaps later direct delivery of electric energy as by Randy Mills’s CIHT – if it can be up scaled, myriads of applications. A Smart New World. Fast evolution of the generators, Many surprises, all good or excellent. Gary Wright in his good anticipated comment has emphasized that prediction is very difficult and this is true indeed for bad things, For the good ones, we/you will see.

In case that I will have the opportunity to write a LENR OUTLOOK 2014, I will combine this with a LENR teaching course, in the style of this Cold Fusion 101:
http://student.mit.edu/searchiap/iap-BD6D0CF8E170B284E0400312852F4A61.html
with a very different, technology oriented content,
My ideas have evoluted in 2012, see below and I hope this will continue in 2013 at a faster pace.


APPENDIX:
MY LENR PAPERS PUBLISHED IN 2012 STARTING FROM THIS REVIEW PAPER:
http://egooutpeters.blogspot.ro/2012/05/my-way-to-lenr-truth.html


MY WAY TO LENR TRUTH
http://egooutpeters.blogspot.ro/2012/05/my-way-to-lenr-truth.html

PAPERS ABOUT DEFKALION:

INTERVIEW WITH DEFKALION. I. BUSINESS
http://egooutpeters.blogspot.ro/2012/06/interview-with-defkalion-i-business.html

MY ANSWER TO PROF. CHRISTOS STREMMENOS
http://egooutpeters.blogspot.ro/2012/07/my-answer-to-prof-christos-stremmenos.html

SOME BASIC PRINCIPLES OF DEFKALION’S LENR TECHNOLOGY (I)
http://egooutpeters.blogspot.ro/2012/07/some-basic-principles-of-defkalions.html

DEFKALION’ S LENR- from Discovery to Invention
http://egooutpeters.blogspot.ro/2012/08/defkalion-s-lenr-from-discovery-to.html

DEFKALION: THE BIG BAD PROBLEM IS DEFINITION OF LENR.
http://egooutpeters.blogspot.ro/2012/08/defkalion-big-bad-problem-is-definition.html

INSPIRED BY DEFKALION: THE TORTUOUS WAY TOWARD LENR STANDARDS,.
http://egooutpeters.blogspot.ro/2012/08/inspired-by-defkalion-tortuous-way.html

Defkalion says: HENI is a more proper name
http://egooutpeters.blogspot.ro/2012/08/defkalion-says-heni-is-more-proper-name.html

PAPERS ABOUT ANDREA ROSSI

ANALYZING THE SHUTDOWNROSSI.COM SITE
http://egooutpeters.blogspot.ro/2012/10/analyzing-shutdownrossicom-site.html

THE ANSWERABLE ANSWER OF GARY TO MY “HHYBRID APPROACH” PAPER.
http://egooutpeters.blogspot.ro/2012/12/the-answerable-answer-of-gary-to-my.html

GENERAL PAPERS ABOUT LENR.

A sequel to “MY WAY TO LENR TRUTH”
http://egooutpeters.blogspot.ro/2012/05/sequel-to-my-way-to-lenr-truth.html

ANSWERING TO RUBY CARAT”S “WHAT IF?” QUESTION
http://egooutpeters.blogspot.ro/2012/05/answering-to-ruby-carats-what-if.html

My answer to Abd’s analysis and plan
http://egooutpeters.blogspot.ro/2012/06/my-answer-to-abds-analysis-and-plan.html

DISCUSSING WITH MY COLLEAGUE ABD ABOUT RELIABILITY
http://egooutpeters.blogspot.ro/2012/06/discussing-with-my-colleague-abd-about.html

RELIABILITY -THE DISCUSSION CONTINUES.
http://egooutpeters.blogspot.ro/2012/06/reliability-discussion-continues.html

SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING ED STORMS’ NEW LENR THEORY.
http://egooutpeters.blogspot.ro/2012/06/some-questions-regarding-ed-storms-new.html

NEW LENR SURVEY. To be repeated in 2019
http://egooutpeters.blogspot.ro/2012/06/new-lenr-survey.html

LENR AND THE SCIENTIFIC METHOD.
http://egooutpeters.blogspot.ro/2012/06/lenr-and-scientific-method-subject-of.html

OPEN LETTER TO ICCF-17
http://egooutpeters.blogspot.ro/2012/08/open-letter-to-iccf-17.html

ANSWER TO MY OPEN LETTER TO ICCF-17
http://egooutpeters.blogspot.ro/2012/08/answer-to-my-open-letter-yo-iccf-17.html

WHY LENR IS AND IS NOT THE “NEW FIRE”
http://egooutpeters.blogspot.ro/2012/09/why-lenr-is-and-is-not-new-fire.html


EFFICIENCY OF/IN COLD FUSION/LENR RESEARCH.
http://egooutpeters.blogspot.ro/2012/10/efficiency-ofin-cold-fusionlenr-research.html

SEQUEL TO THE “EFFICIENCY” PAPER First part.
http://egooutpeters.blogspot.ro/2012/10/sequel-to-efficiency-paper-first-part.html

MARK GIBBS POINTS OUT THE DIFFERENCES.
http://egooutpeters.blogspot.ro/2012/10/mark-gibbs-points-out-differences.html

IS COLD FUSION NATURAL? (an essay in questions and counter-questions)
http://egooutpeters.blogspot.ro/2012/12/is-cold-fusion-natural-essay-in.html

A HYBRID APPROACH FOR SOLVING THE LENR PROBLEMS.
http://egooutpeters.blogspot.ro/2012/12/a-hybrid-approach-for-solving-lenr.html

AUXILLIARY PAPERS

The Mother of Radames
http://egooutpeters.blogspot.ro/2012/06/mother-of-radames.html

PLAYFUL WEEKEND MINIATURES
http://egooutpeters.blogspot.ro/2012/10/playful-weekend-miniatures.html

80% OF ALL TRUTHS ARE PARETO-TRUTHS
http://egooutpeters.blogspot.ro/2012/11/80-of-all-truths-are-pareto-truths.html





12 comments:

  1. Hello Peter and a very happy New Year to you and all your readers.
    .
    This is a quick note to thank you for your many insights and papers over the past year(s).
    .
    Also need to point out that many of the above posted links don't appear to work.
    .
    Am keen to check each one out :)
    .
    Cheers
    .
    Doug Marker

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  2. Happy New Year and thanks!


    The links are coorect, seem to be active and all work with copy paste in the browser. Have No idea what is thsi mystery- probaly some error from the Blogger program. Will try to find out, please use copy paste i am very sorry for this.
    Peter

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  3. Thanks for your summary, Peter, as well as the plug for the Calendar. I'm glad you dig it.

    But hey, can you define for me the difference between LENR and LENR+? I would like to know exactly what you mean.

    Ruby

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  4. Dear Ruby,

    I thank you, the Calendar is a wonderful work, is deep respect for our pioneers and, in some sense, martyrs. To those who have not lived enough to see the victory of Cold Fusion.

    LENR+ is an enhanced, intense form of LENR. Say, 10o times more intense.
    That means, Pd-D, nanometric systems as Piantelli, Arata, Ahern, etc all have low intensity,serious reliability problems, and short duration. They I LENR and I doubt it is possible to scale them up to something commercial.
    LENR+ that is Rossi, Defkalion and posssibly Brillouin are playing in an other league- much more intense and long duration, can be scaled up however there are some problems, first of all good control, that have to be solved. What has to be understood is that IT IS A LONG WAY, THE WAY OF TECHNOLOGY FROM EXCESS HEAT TO A PRACTICAL ENERGY SOURCE.Exact the contrary of a shortcut.
    I thank that the difference between LENR and LENR+ is how the active sites (NAE)are formed.
    For the time given, almost nobody believes me.
    The idea needs a new mode of thinking, a paradigm change.

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  5. Dear Peter,
    I appreciated Defkalion's approach by participating at NI Week and ICCF17. At both those venues Defkalion's CEO stated that Defkalion would reveal an industrial prototype "by the end of 2012 or at latest the end of January 2013" We are now counting down the 6th month since that statement. Do you have any indication about progress? I hope Defkalion will not dash expectations they set, unlike some others we know of in the field.
    I am surprised you did not mention this in your 2013 Outlook. Are you back-pedalling on Defkalions's behalf?
    Best wishes

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    Replies
    1. This comment has been removed by the author.

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    2. Dear Spacegoat,

      Please wait till the next week when the long distance
      Exodus of Defkalion will be over. My confidence in them is based on understanding their principles in research and development, they are LENR+ at its best. I am sure they will
      go full steam, high speed now.
      I think the exodus was, in a sense a traumatic event for the families they went from a place where the Goddess of Beauty was born from the froth of the sea to a place where
      no sane god will do something like this
      Peter

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    3. thanks for the optimistic answer...
      http://www.lenr-forum.com/showthread.php?990-P-Gluck-News-about-Defkalion-in-a-week&p=3536#post3536

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    4. I have spoken to my friend Alex Xanthoulis this morning on Skype- he has just arrived to Vsncouver 2 hours earlier- Canadian start is on Jan 15- offices labs all moved. European branch established. Dear Alain do not worry, this is a really good team, I am very sorry to not be 30 years younger to join them.
      Peter

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    5. thanks for sharing this info...
      Facing pathologic scepticism, we experience some stress when there is silence...

      anyway all is logic, even silence

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    6. Thank you Peter for your continuous and professional efforts in monitoring and "predicting" on developments of the so called LENR and LENR+.

      We all have to realize that any effort to introduce to the market a product in this area is not as simple as introducing a new hybrid car.

      In our case, what we have in hand is a boiler. Not a simple one, but still a boiler with a very interesting COP that can trigger the development of a series of new technologies utilizing the very low cost of the produced thermal kWh. So any attempt to introduce any such new technology has to be very carefully prepared and not to be relayed just on demos, that might be impressive but not enough to overcome the obstacles towards product licensing and public awareness.

      I would like to give a practical example here on such obstacles "from the real life".

      Any boiler has to go through a series of well defined safety tests by Authorities as per its classification. In such classification one has to define the burning fuel. In our case there is no such burning fuel, as far as no oxidation is taking place inside the reactor. One could then pick "nuclear" in the appropriate box in the application form. But this also is not true as far as the reactions are not following any conventional nuclear reaction schema that would conclude to a 5 to 6 years on safety testing, following the defined test protocols by the Nuclear Safety Authorities. The "LENR" term in use so far, as introduced by university professors that do not face or understand the industrial reality, is not only wrong and confusing (in terms of science) but extremely dangerous as far as the use of such naive term maight help some (futured?) government funding in academic research BUT COULD DELAY dramatically any effort towards industrialization and product entry to the markets.

      In our case, we decided to continue our R&D activities moving to Vancouver, BC as far as the "environment" here is more realistic and friendly to the introduction of any Non Conventional Alternative Energy technology. In parallel, we established in Milan, Italy the first (out of scheduled several)R&D labs dedicated to vertical industrial new applications with the co-operation of powerful international industries that wish to develop new products, as per their interests, based on the already demonstrated Hyperion's energy source .

      We hope that the developments on both such strategic decisions we made, will contribute positively to the time schedules we follow preparing the entrance to the market of practical, safe and affordable licensed new technology products.

      Your work Peter on public awareness to the same objective is precious. We wish you and to your blog followers all the best for 2013.

      John Hadjichristos

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    7. thanks for explaining your position and strategy.

      I've made a summary and quoted a little.
      http://www.lenr-forum.com/showthread.php?1035-Defkalion-John-Hadjichistos-comments-on-Peter-Gluck-blog&p=3652#post3652
      feel free to comment, ask for correction, and enrich...

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