Wednesday, January 2, 2013
LENR OUTLOOK 2013
I have dedicated to Cold Fusion then LENR then HHENI almost a third of my (professional) life time and therefore I am very dedicated to it and I have huge expectations for/from it. It is not necessary any mental effort for me to perform kind of personification of LENR and to wish it, at this New Year celebration, the classic:
Vivat, crescat, floreat LENR!
(i.e. May it live, grow and flourish!)
Please allow me a few predictions (risky) and some ideas that, I dare to think- could be useful for attaining the three wishes for LENR earlier or easier or better using a proper problem solving strategy. A radically new strategy- the leitmotif of this essay and of all other LENR writings published this year on my blog is Paradigm Shift. Paradigm Shift ASAP!
LENR is alive and hopefully will be very well, soon. Taking in consideration how attacked, oppressed and ignored this scientific field was and still is- a secular miracle created and sustained by a group of scientists, researchers, journalists and science writers. You can find the names of these special people in the 2013 History of Cold Fusion Calendar a historical piece, a treasure: created by our enthusiastic young lady colleague, Ruby Carat:
http://coldfusionnow.org/store/2013-history-of-cold-fusion-calendar/ Founders, heroes, martyrs, dreamers, achievers- many combinations of these. The survival of the Cold Fusion idea is their work and achievement. Many variants were created so perhaps it is justified the use the logically flawed and grammatically incorrect LENRs for these. Rich, diversified life however only very slowly evoluting to the superior form aimed from the very start-a practical energy source.
There are great, old, nasty problems with the growing of LENR.
A significant event, this morning one of our best creative thinkers and experimenters, Brian Ahern gave a good formulation of the problem:
LENR or LANR has consistently failed to meet two conditions:
1. HIGH LEVEL OF REPRODUCIBILITY
2. useful levels of heat output
My favorite partner for discussions, Abd (see the list of links appended to this essay) an encyclopedic scholar of LENR has asked that reproducibility should be replaced by reliability as we have used it too in our long discussions. Actually reliability is more subjective and bad reproducibility is the objective ugly fact and the curse of the field.
More technologically speaking, LENR experiments give low intensity, short duration and practically uncontrollable heat.
The mission: scale-up seems to be almost impossible.
There had been many disparate successes however the next step(s)
were not made – no follow-up, not improvements, not development- finita la tragedia!
Scale-up is vital for technology’
Scale-up is not simply growing in space and time, it is not only quantitative, it is qualitative too; it is achieving of some necessary technological virtues, the sine qua non components of usability
Scale-up is the technological equivalent of maturization. Life is sometimes cruel and so can be technology. An adult is not an over dimensional child. Believe me this is not a forced analogy.
Many times scale-up is an ordeal, even a wicked problem, scaling up can be non-linear and non-continuous, and it can be sad reality that not all processes can be scaled up.
It is technologically naïve to believe that if you can get a bit of excess heat then in a few simple steps you will launch a good energy source on the market.
Some processes seem to suffer of technological nanism, dwarfism- a great trouble and you well know that desperate sicknesses need desperate remedies. Desperate is a toxic word, so we will speak about radical remedies. Nothing frightening actually, but great changes are necessary.
Using the personification idea, what we have to do is to make LENR more intelligent, more serious, more realistic, more pragmatic and more materialistic than it is now.
Take in consideration that these qualities are related, combined, in part superposed! It’s more radical than it sounds.
Some of the players in the field have already made huge progresses in this direction but their idea are not accepted and memefied yet. 2013 will be the year when this happens on greater scale.
Let’s discuss systematically:
Make LENR more intelligent:
I use the following definition for intelligence: “Intelligence is the ability to not mix the points of view” (Mihail Ralea) This means to make proper distinctions, - you can find a list of those in my 2012 writings. For example:
- existence (scientific) is not usability (technological):
- excess heat is not an energy source;
- applied science is not a technology;
But all can be if you discover how to do it!!!
- LENR is not LENR+, it is an essential, decisive difference and we have to find out what this is. Only LENR+ can be really scaled up
- LENR is almost natural, LENR + is very artificial, man-made
(I feel it is strange that > 98% of my colleagues and friends do NOT believe in the existence of LENR+ but I bet this will change in 2013. What is even worse I was not attacked for my unorthodox ideas, very disturbing)
There are many other non specific, however important differences, we have to distinguish between things:
- a patent and know-how,
- history and experience are not sources of universal solutions, many times you have to invent and work put absolutely new ones;
- fundraising is not a complete solution just a start that obliges and enslaves:
- if somebody has an opinion different or even contrary to yours in issues not connected to morality! this makes the person NOT your enemy but your partner for discussions; (this is, psychologically the most difficult distinction)
In his kind anticipated comment, John Allen has called the attention to the idea that disruptive effects have to be avoided and
that it is intelligent to accept that during development, besides many real problems imaginary, bureaucratic and even false problems bound to rules, law, names, enviro (hysteria) issues are in need of solitiuons too. (this is also realism).
Will LENR become more intelligent in 2013? Will the smarter memes remove the inert memes? Perhaps some much awaited achievements of LENR will induce a peculiar Flynn Effect in the field- see
The human Flynn Effect is long term and slow, LENR’s IQ has to increase molto allegro.
Make LENR more serious.
I use the following definition for the adjective “serious": "To be serious means to be focused on the core of the things and not on the undefined halo of trivia hovering around them"(Mihail Ralea)
The true core of LENR is energy and I think/hope this will be in the center of the attention and of the research activity in 2013. However there are many scientists who, despite the lack of a theory and despite the crazy experimental situation try to discover something fundamentally new and important scientifically.
I have published a paper: “Why Technology First?” in the very first issue of “Infinite Energy” and I will never abandon and change from this kind of focusing. This is contrasting with the popular idea that we have the duty, as scientists to invest all our creative energies in understanding LENR, create a very good theory and use it to build a good technology. I have written a lot about why I consider this idealistic and impossible and recently I have concluded that a hybrid approach is the unique serious and realistic way to LENR applications. Fortunately, the serious meme “Physics is experimental” is making progresses recently in our circles.
During 2013 LENR will be increasingly serious and successful, I hope this is more emphasis will put on LENR+.
Make LENR more realistic
Realistic LENR has many aspects. One of these, better to be avoided in this discussion, is the understanding of the contribution of the inner, seemingly inherent weaknesses of LENR to its bad reputation, low popularity and even rejection.
To negate something is always easier than to create something.
We must solve our problems at any price; otherwise LENR will remain interesting but technologically sterile.
LENR is very complex and this idea must become part of our modes of thinking and research strategies. It is very sad for the LENR theories that will lose from their elegance and mathematical beauty. Dynamicity and diversity are combined with complexity and this reality will lead to events and concepts described by new words like theoricide and theoriplexes.
I hope that in 2013 Defkalion’s fundamental analytical data will
be used to the creation of a superior complete, predictive and even productive theory of LENR. In which extent this theory will be valid for the classic LENR, I have no idea. I think that Pd-D and Ni-H are different processes- Occam’s Razor has lost its edge in this case. Some of my best friends disagree strongly. I hope we will see one day the truth, Nature votes for unity or for its own richness?
Make LENR more pragmatic
Suppose you are a high jump coach and your athletes obtain lousy performances? What will you do, try to motivate them, learn them to run faster, move swifter, explain them the wonderful logic of the Fosbury Flop, and stimulate them to exercise…
Or put the bar lower? (In education and in culture sometimes and in some places “to bury the bar deeper)
I know that this is a clumsy and unjust analogy for increasing the precision of measurement but only for the first, say 5 heroic years when Cold Fusion had to fight for survival by demonstrating it exists. Later it became necessary to enhance the reactions and to obtain very convincing effects without using the high art of calorimetry. LENR was unable to do this before being converted in LENR+. Was this due to errors or to the karma of the LENR systems?
Make LENR more materialistic
Or, simply much better funded? The lifeblood of research and development is Money and LENR needs funding. Let’s hope 2013 will a generous year and let’s discuss how this money will be wisely, effectively and efficiently spent. It suffices that one system to demonstrate its practical value and money will come to LENR
And very soon a lot of innovative systems will start to compete for a huge market. The LENR pioneers will become rich, very rich.
The field will flourish, but I m not sure this will start this year.
Many sources, a broad range of temperatures, perhaps later direct delivery of electric energy as by Randy Mills’s CIHT – if it can be up scaled, myriads of applications. A Smart New World. Fast evolution of the generators, Many surprises, all good or excellent. Gary Wright in his good anticipated comment has emphasized that prediction is very difficult and this is true indeed for bad things, For the good ones, we/you will see.
In case that I will have the opportunity to write a LENR OUTLOOK 2014, I will combine this with a LENR teaching course, in the style of this Cold Fusion 101:
with a very different, technology oriented content,
My ideas have evoluted in 2012, see below and I hope this will continue in 2013 at a faster pace.
MY LENR PAPERS PUBLISHED IN 2012 STARTING FROM THIS REVIEW PAPER:
MY WAY TO LENR TRUTH
PAPERS ABOUT DEFKALION:
INTERVIEW WITH DEFKALION. I. BUSINESS
MY ANSWER TO PROF. CHRISTOS STREMMENOS
SOME BASIC PRINCIPLES OF DEFKALION’S LENR TECHNOLOGY (I)
DEFKALION’ S LENR- from Discovery to Invention
DEFKALION: THE BIG BAD PROBLEM IS DEFINITION OF LENR.
INSPIRED BY DEFKALION: THE TORTUOUS WAY TOWARD LENR STANDARDS,.
Defkalion says: HENI is a more proper name
PAPERS ABOUT ANDREA ROSSI
ANALYZING THE SHUTDOWNROSSI.COM SITE
THE ANSWERABLE ANSWER OF GARY TO MY “HHYBRID APPROACH” PAPER.
GENERAL PAPERS ABOUT LENR.
A sequel to “MY WAY TO LENR TRUTH”
ANSWERING TO RUBY CARAT”S “WHAT IF?” QUESTION
My answer to Abd’s analysis and plan
DISCUSSING WITH MY COLLEAGUE ABD ABOUT RELIABILITY
RELIABILITY -THE DISCUSSION CONTINUES.
SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING ED STORMS’ NEW LENR THEORY.
NEW LENR SURVEY. To be repeated in 2019
LENR AND THE SCIENTIFIC METHOD.
OPEN LETTER TO ICCF-17
ANSWER TO MY OPEN LETTER TO ICCF-17
WHY LENR IS AND IS NOT THE “NEW FIRE”
EFFICIENCY OF/IN COLD FUSION/LENR RESEARCH.
SEQUEL TO THE “EFFICIENCY” PAPER First part.
MARK GIBBS POINTS OUT THE DIFFERENCES.
IS COLD FUSION NATURAL? (an essay in questions and counter-questions)
A HYBRID APPROACH FOR SOLVING THE LENR PROBLEMS.
The Mother of Radames
PLAYFUL WEEKEND MINIATURES
80% OF ALL TRUTHS ARE PARETO-TRUTHS