“Most people don't grow up. Most people age.” (Maya Angelou)
“Growing up is hard, love. Otherwise everyone would do it.”
(Kim Harrison)
THE MOST WICKED PROBLEM IS
PROBLETENCE.
The worldwide epidemic of
Probletence is hundreds times more dangerous than Ebola and where it hits-
disasters come fast.
For the lovers of
definitions: the word is formed by combining ‘problem ‘ and ‘impotence’ and
means chronic inability for solving problems, including the really vital
ones. Probletence is not in the
dictionaries, is not popular, not a meme; however combating it is a condition
of survival.
Probletence- has more rules,
here are the first three ones:
First Rule “A problem
will NOT be solved if the number, influence or power of the people living,
taking profit from
the problem is greater than the same characteristics of the people who want
solve the problem."
(when the rulers
oppose to the solving of a problem in order to protect their privileges or
interests, the problems persist and can become permanent)
Second Rule: “A problem will
NOT be solved in the great majority of the cases not because people do not see
the solution,
but because they do not see
the problem itself.”
(any form of ignorance and
illiteracy is deadly danger for problem solving, however the cult of ignorance
and the practice of arrogant illiteracy are fatal; in most cases the problem
solving does not start at all- it is ejaculation ante portas)
Third Rule: “A problem will
NOT be solved when the methods used for solving it become more important and
valuable than the solution itself and the same inefficient methods continue to
be used in vain for “solving” the problem.
(this is a specific
case of “means replace aims” and …it is impossible to solve problems with
inadequate tools or worst practices)
So, problems are not solved-
when a solution is not desired, when the problem is not recognized and when the
tools used are not good. Oppressed, ignored and tool-less problems have no
chances.
The first rule refers to
problem killers but the second and the third to the problem solvers.
Many combinations and stages
of these laws appear in practice...
If you believe these rules
have value, please combine them with the Rules of real life problem solving, attached
to this paper.
When you analyze these rules,
please take in consideration that in Western modern cultures “solving the
problems” is an obligation, therefore many unsolved problems get replacement
solutions, pseudo-solutions, sometimes solutions that are worse
than the initial problem or
solutions generating new problems.
The realm of probletence is
vast and varied.
THE CASE OF LENR.
Is LENR impacted by
probletence, now? Everybody will be agree that LENR was/is a victim of the
First rule – the field has a broad range of oppressors- hot fusionists enjoying
their own long range huge cost probletence, fossil fuels profiteers, renewable
energy workers with problems of development, neophobic and dogmatic theoreticians,
sadistic bullies in search of a vulnerable cause. Lack of funding,
ostracization by high rank journals, bad press are efficient forms of
oppression; research in LENR is risky for careers. Terribly bad, only a very
fast victory of (then) cold fusion in the first stage after the
Fleischmann-Pons conference could change this. However the great strategic
error of searching for neutrons and then the
dreadful calamity called
“irreproducibility” combined with weak signals in the few successful experiments
lead to a long time existential crisis. The accumulated results can give the
certainty that the phenomenon exists. However, in 25 years of heroic work it had
been slow progress and the perspective of creating a new energy source is – as
it is. By the way, I have written a lot of blog papers saying what I will
repeat now here- however my ideas have limited success and only LENR is more
probletent than me, in this respect. I will mention here only this obvious
loser: http://egooutpeters.blogspot.ro/2013/09/everything-i-knew-about-cold-fusion-was.html
I will now re-write the
history of LENR in this spirit of the fight with probletence; it is here about
the second law- LENR is not understood well.
LENR HAS TO GROW UP!
The second law of probletence
is dominating the field- the basics of the LENR problem are not understood.
What has happened in 1989? A
phenomenon of paramount importance was discovered before its time, in the worst
place possible in an undeveloped form-as a newborn infant weak, sick, vulnerable,
with serious birth defects, needing intensive care.
Because Fleischmann and Pons who
have discovered it have achieved a status of heroes, the cradle of the infant
was considered the place where the infant will develop, grow up.
The wet electrochemical PdD
model has achieved many horizontal, incremental successes and has continued to
be popular Actually, it can be seen that the cradle has converted CF/LENR in a
kind of unhappy bonsai-cat and the cradle can become a coffin too.
I dislike these forced
analogies; they have good doses of idiocy in them however they help us to
define the root problem:
LENR HAS TO GROW UP! So much about confronting the first two laws
of probletence and applying problem solving rule no.3. However it comes the
great war with the terrible third law of probletence – it needs courageous
decisions, radical changes a and a lot of blood, toil, tears, and sweat-
to cite my favorite politician
The inner myths and memes and labels
of the field are “we take no prisoners” type enemies in this war.
HELPING LENR TO GROW UP
If you misunderstand the
problem, how could you know what the solution has to be? LENR has to grow up,
and this means
more, a lot more then growing
greater and stronger, it implies
deep radical quality changes
as the metamorphosis of a caterpillar into a butterfly, the creeping “creature”
from the electrolysis cell has to become a different, high “flying” and a high
temperature energy source everybody wants in his/her house snd/or factory.
In the spirit of the third law of probletence-actually against it- new tools
are needed, new approaches, improved thinking, and a paradigm shift.
About the “tools”- old and
new- worn-out and created now:
-From the start CF was
considered to be a scientific problem. it was believed Science will solve the
LENR problem and all we have to do is to find the scientific explanation of the
phenomenon and to use it for development. It was supposed that this is a
relatively easy and fast way. There will be used probably more tools but the
handle for all will be a good theory.
There is no other way than
that of the Scientific Method and for
building a technology, it is
necessary to understand well LENR.
-The search for the Theory
was very successful quantitatively but, optimistically speaking, a complete failure
qualitatively no usable theory for guiding experiments was found. This is a sad
reality not some vision based on depression. We know the phenomenon is
existent, it is manifested by excess heat- but where, when, how, why this heat
appears is not known. And why (XXX) it does not appear so many times? What have we to do in order to obtain more
heat, regularly? Is this possible or just a dream or unfulfilled promise? I
judge the situation is intolerable and has to be changed. Many of my friends
tend to be less wary, LENR is such an interesting and fine mystery!
No good theory yet- this has
to be explained- what I think:
It says that HTSC –a non-probletent
phenomenon, 3 years older then LENR was explained only very recently. In
Condensed Matter Science, nuclear or not nuclear, theories still are not
realistic and cannot be used for applications. It is developing fast-
nanosciences are leading- however for our case/problem new theories re
necessary. (missing theory)
-The birthplace of Cold
Fusion has determined the kinds of theories tried- electrochemistry,
palladium-hydrogen interaction, nuclear physics. The catalytic model proposed
by me for investigation in 1991 was ignored however it partially entered the
field as NAE (active sites)
It is much disagreement
regarding the topology, nature and mechanism of the reaction that generates the
desired excess heat, the secondary and the parasitic reactions.
Chemistry cannot explain LENR
therefore LENR MUST be nuclear, and if it is nuclear it is only nuclear and
nothing else.
(bad choice of theory
model)
-LENR does not need one
theory, but many- it is more complex and complicated than thought- it is a
combination of sequences;
DGT has formulated this as: “dynamic
system of the multi-stage set of reactions” a very bright definition, IMHO. No
single theory can explain LENR. Some of these steps are nuclear, others are
pre- and post-nuclear. (multiple
theories necessary)
HOWEVER: the solution seems to be in a way
prior to theory, the primary task is not to explain LENR but to transform it in
a productive system. The CF device was just a start- whispering an “it is
possible” message, we have to build reliable, powerful working device. The
issue is much more about “to do” then about “to know”, action and knowledge
have to work together.
For many of our colleagues this seems to be not
a “scientific” way- but, you will see, no other way leads to success.
Technology is the way, engineering is the key, and
science is both means and aim, not the panaceum. We must choose the way less
known and be aware that it is obstacled even dangerous.
The E-cat and Hyperion sagas, still in
development, allow us to learn a few things about engineering and technology.
Gas phase dry and clean, degassed metal –micro and nano mixed as it has to be
(?) in contact with hydrogen in an activated form, at high temperatures. 200 C
seems to be a practical lower limit. The system is dynamic, in more senses.
Materials science is vital, control is difficult, heat transfer is critical.
Changing, improving, understanding, trying and retrying, making errors and
correcting them, surprises and delays, tests and other tests, standardizing the
tests – the unique beauty of industrial research. A wave of bitter-sweet
nostalgia hits me, once I was a player now just a passionate sunset-stage
kibitz always in search of broken, scarce information.
Eventually, LENR technologies will be created,
Fleischmann’s and Pons’ magnificent dream becoming real, very far from the
cradle in some sophisticated heavy metal boxes...
It will be demonstrated that probletence is not
a fatal curse and it is not invincible. If Homo sapiens cannot find the answer,
Homo faber- a denier of the Impossible- will save him. Technology is the domain
of human activity where probletence cannot rule.
Only new good ideas and very
hard development work can save LENR!
Comments are NOT welcome-
they lead to dialogues and these are only one step from the ”You are wrong, I
am right” trap. Let us use fertile parallel monologs- so please send only additions
and/or subtractions to this paper. Thank you!
Peter
ADDENDA
RULES OF REAL LIFE PROBLEM
SOLVING
Motto:
“I think, I exist. I
decide, I live. I solve the problems, I live with a purpose.”
1. There are NO isolated
problems, they always come in dynamic bunches.
2. There are NO final
solutions for the really great problems, these have to be solved again and
again.
3. NOT solving the problem,
but defining it is the critical step.
4. NOT the unknown data, but
those known and untrue are the greatest obstacles to the solution.
5. .NOT what we know, but
what we don’t know is more important for solving the problem.
6. NOT the main desired
positive effect, but those secondary negative and/or undesired effects decide
in most cases if a solution is implemented.
7. NOT all problems have a
complete, genuine solution.
8. NOT the solutions that
seem perfect from the start, but those which are very perfectible are the best
in many cases.
9. NOT the bright, shiny,
spectacular solutions but those elaborated, worked out with difficulty and
effort and patience are more valuable and have a larger area of applicability.
10. NOT the solutions that
are logical and perfectly rational, but those that are adequate for the
feelings of the potential users, even if they are ilogical, have the greatest
chances of fast implementation.
11. NOT the quality of the
solution but the speed of its implementation is the decisive factor in many
cases. It can be better to have a partial solution applied fast than a slower
almost perfect solution.
12. NOT always long hours of
hard work and great efforts, but (sometimes) relaxation and fun is the best way
to obtain solutions for (awfully) difficult problems.
13. NOT our own problems, but
the problems of other people are usually more boldly and creatively solved by
us
14. NOT the solutions worked
out by us, but those borrowed. bought or stolen from others are more easily
accepted and implemented.
15. NOT the enhancement of
human strengths but the limitation of human weaknesses is more useful for
efficient problem solving.
16. NOT the very careful
perfect planning, but the smart assuming of risks and firm decision taking are
the practical keys to successful problem solving.
17. NOT always the existent,
real problems, but many times the fictive, imaginary ones are the most
difficult to be solved.
18. Do NOT accept the
premises of the problem, but change them as necessary and possible.
19. Do NOT stop at the first
solution, but seek for alternatives.
–
RULE- the most important of
all;
20. NOT the wise application
of these rules but the finding of the specific exceptions to these, is the real
high art of problem solving.
The rules are inherently
perfectible. Despite their broad applicability
including the most wicked
problems and their availability in 20 languages the rules are till not taught
in schools and are far from the stage of epidemic dissemination. This results
in Humanity terrorized by myriads of unsolved, painful problems of all kind, by
worldwide epidemics of Probletence.
Translations
of the Rules