“In order to succeed, we must define Success.
A nice reader, who confessed to be a scientist and is concerned re LENR, has helped me to understand better some important events that will happen next week.
The reader, a scientist, not member of our LENR community, will attend ICCF-18 and hopes that this conference sheds more light on this fascinating subject.
He (I call him Brother John) agrees that reproducibility is key.
In Brother John’s words:
One thing that concerns me is that after 24 years, I'm still hearing too many premature claims of success, as well as premature but incomplete "theoretical" claims (either "divorced" from experimental reality, or sometimes the converse - supposedly "in line" with experimental literature but not well-grounded theoretically).
I have asked Brother John what he thinks about these claims of success, what is:”success” in LENR?
He is a realist researcher and defines “success” by:
(2) scalability along with an amount of excess power which is clearly beyond that attributable to experimental error
(2) scalability along with an amount of excess power which is clearly beyond that attributable to experimental error
This is the natural and rational definition of success here, however most of the authors are contented with any much more modest signs of excess heat or of some clearly nuclear phenomena and are very tolerant toward bad reproducibility.
OK the task – also of this blogger is to define the degree of success of two somewhat inter-related events:
a) The Defkalion demos of July 22 and 23 – the first public ones in a series;
b) ICCF-18 as a step in the long history that started as Cold Fusion in the Fleischmann Pons Cell.
The first is a tactic issue and needs a fast answer, the second necessitates strategic thinking, re-thinking and deep analysis. The coming days will be dedicated to the analysis of the Defkalion demos. I know the Internet will help me if I succeed to use its formidable potential, and I hope that you, my dear reader will tell me what do you think about the demos; PLEASE DO IT!
As told recently a great 89er experimentalist cold fusionist has seen such a demo and has concluded: “it is obvious you have a robust device which generates heat on demand. All of you deserve congratulations on this achievement!”
OK, soon we will know how many people worldwide, who are watching these demos, will come to similar conclusions as our expert friend. It is not a “now or never” problem, many such tests will follow and commercial Hyperions will be convincing indeed.
The most positive factor and the main virtue of the DGT company is professionalism. And this is the reason of my deep empathy and
desire to see them victorious.
Usually speaking about professionalism we think first in terms of rules of conduct. However, for each profession and especially for researchers there are both specific. Professionalism is first of all
problem personalization- deep dedication, the ability to live (for) a problem- there are practically no clear limits between professional and personal, and Defkalion has demonstrated total dedication to their energy source. (Conversely capitulation to a wicked problem- I am alluding to the R- problem in LENR)
An other “sine qua non” condition” for professionalism is the trend to know everything about the subject and use a very broad inter- and trans-disciplinar range of sources of information (read please DGT’s ICCF-17 paper). Total motivation leads to a complete, holistic & holographic vision of your problem. This is
an asymptotic trend; Defkalion has discovered and revealed so many surprisingly new aspects of their HENI process and has opened new avenues for scientific research. For example a new understanding of the potential of nanoplasmonics, Rydberg hydrogen and Bose-Einstein Condensates. This is only the start.
The initial ideal image of Cold Fusion – never clear, now fades away.
Professionalism is superior knowledge management, agile surprise management and solid reputation management.
Professionalism is effectiveness and efficiency in using the best tools- ALL the necessary tools! In this case not only scientific theories but also technology and engineering. and the best people- forming genuine functional team in this case in
, then in Greece and now
we will see the Italian DGT – Canada Europe team in
Professionalism is discipline, order, rules and very high standards;
but even the highest standard is standard i.e. a form of healthy bureaucracy.
Professionalism is wise plans, proud search for excellence, is fighting for the advancement of the profession (and by Jove!, it was placidly stagnating for so many years!) It is pragmatism in its best form.
We have to mention here that Defkalion has a well developed
and verified Protocol, for the experiment per se. This has to be combined now with other protocols- diplomatic, for mass media.
Hopefully these combinations will work well, however small glitches that are always possible cannot change the basic fact that the device works as it will be presented.
In 2011, I was very disappointed by the non-professionalism of the dozen experiments made by Rossi; my papers re this can be found there:
Now we will see the difference.
Obviously, Defkalion is respecting always the merciless Rule 1=0
too, see please:
The coming test is discussed in many places on the Web. Friends and enemies are preparing for attacks and battles; the test, even if everything will go perfectly has to fight with petrified memes, arrogant egos, hostile interest, Koalemos and so on.
Typical comments can be found there:
Agreeing with Mary Yugo
Credibility & Defkalion Missouri University
Very soon you will receive the proofs of Defkalion’s professionalism and of Hyperion’s functionality.
Success, Peter? Really?ReplyDelete
Here is what they told NyTeknik's Mats Lewan back in June 2011 (!)
"The company stated that it is planning two factories, one of which should already be set up in the city of Xanthi, with a prospective total capacity of 300,000 'E-cat' units per year. Production start is planned for 2012 with a volume of about 40,000 units the first year.
The production units are supposedly aimed towards households and businesses, to be used for heating, cooling and power generation. No official information on pricing or specifications are yet available.
Defkalion estimates 125 employees at the plant in Xanthi and a total of 200 employees within the company in 2012."
So what happened since?
it is OK if you speak about the subject of my writing.
What has happened?
We are in 2013 and the problem of Defkalion's new energy source
Watch the demos with attention and come back Wednesday. OK?
OK, Peter. You may not believe it but I hope you are right. It's just that I doubt it a lot.Delete
Printed November 2009
LDRD 140639 Final Report:
Investigation of Transmutation Claims
Curtis D. Mowry, J. Pace Van Devender, Jeffrey E. Reich, Richard P. Grant, and James A. Ohlhausen
The Proton-21 Laboratory in the Ukraine has been publishing results on shock-induced transmutation of several elements, including Cobalt 60 into non-radioactive elements. We have developed and exercised a process to detect possible shock-wave-induced transmutation products and to unambiguously validate or invalidate the claims in collaboration with the Proton-21 Laboratory. We found elevated and localized concentrations of impurity elements like the Ukrainian’s report in our sample, but all our results are consistent with the ejection of impurities that were not in solution in our alloy, were deposited from the cathode during irradiation, or could be from surface contamination although the surface contamination cannot be validated. We are positioned to test samples from Proton-21 if funded to do so.
If we do proceed with testing the Proton-21 samples, the control of starting sample and hardware is critical. Multiple methods are necessary to provide complimentary sampling volumes, different trade-offs for cost and detection limits, and different mapping and quantification abilities. Multi-disciplinary inputs will be needed in the fields of metallurgy, chemistry, and physics. Step-wise analysis is useful as shown in this work; additional techniques were available but not needed. Initial measurements provide guidance for more sophisticated and expensive measurements.
This is how professional scientist respond to solid evidence of LENR reactions. They just don't believe it. To them, it can't be true, it must be contamination from somewhere but we can't find out where these transmutation products are coming from.
Send us more money and we will do more testing that we still can't believe in.
I am coming to the opinion that science is very much like a religion where faith is require to look at unexplained evidence.
This is why a theory steeped in well established scientific principles must precede the presentation of experimental fact.
We must explain the facts before they are observed to make an impact on the scientific belief system.
The greats in science will become curious and begin the journey to truth. But for the mediocre majority, no belief is possible. Where brother John sits in this belief system is yet to be determined.
Science will reject the upcoming demonstrations. These demos will be more impactful for those with less scientific preconceptions.
A question for Peter.ReplyDelete
Let's assume that tomorrow the world will acknowledge that Defkalion GT successfully demonstrated a plentiful, green, abundant, cheap, almost ideal novel energy source. What will happen next?
Do DGT plan to make science progress by disclosing clear information about how to replicate their LENR effect or are they going to sit on their invention while the rest of the world keeps wasting billions on expensive and outdated energy solutions or trying to figure out how to make a LENR reactor produce heat exceeding instrumental error margin?
Don't you think that after a short initial period of enthusiasm there might be a backlash from the CMNS and mainstream scientific communities if DGT will manage to successfully demonstrate what they claim to have BUT at the same time also plan to delay scientific disclosure for commercial reasons?
It's a new, poorly understood revolutionary scientific principle that we're talking about, not a new energy efficient coffee machine.
This comment has been removed by the author.Delete
Rossi has shown Defkalion Green Technologies that it was possible to build a functional and powerful Ni/H reactor. And that is all he did. This singular revelation inspired in them an instance of faith that miracles are possible as wrought by the enfeebled hands of man in contravention of all common sense and scientific beliefs.Delete
Defkalion has revealed far more then they ever got from Rossi to help others on their way to similar faith. For have no doubt, faith both strong and certain is the indispensable gift that can drive the most common of men to great accomplishments.
What gives others the right to demand additional information? Do they require more evidence to bolster their faith like doubting Thomas, a skeptic who refused to believe without direct personal experience, to cover his fingers in the flowing blood as proof of the miracle that he so long denied was possible?
Faith is something that clashes easily with the common sense that currently permeates this world. Faith can be faith only, because it shows clearly about the worldview beyond this limited one we now live in. It inspires, and explains in crystal clarity a new paradigm of values, values that surpass and surmount the conventional. It is capable of presenting the Truth that cannot be found in this current strangled worldview. That is why this new birth of faith and the conventional scientific belief system we all suffer under are inevitably in conflict with each other.
Defkalion may well have surpassed Rossi in the unfathomable technology that they are fielding; are they different or are they the same; we just don’t know; but why give tight fisted Rossi something that he was not willing to share with others.
As the patent law stands now, I am sure there are minds as brilliant and inspired as those plying their trade at Defkalion in a world filled with brilliant minds. When all who are interested and inspired by steadfast faith are set to task, the time to new discovery will be short.
Who is actually responsible for the billions upon billions lost as a consequence of the folly of man as Defkalion holds their secrets closely? Clearly it’s not Defkalion, They only seek to abide by the intellectual property practices and rules currently set in place long ago and hope that these unfair rules are changed as rapidly as possible. Amend that infamous law and make it receptive to... and bestow recognition of... overunity technologies.
When inspired and motivated by the events beginning tomorrow, with the full force of the law as applied to most other inventions, allow Defkalion to file a patent that will permit others skilled in the art upon its detailed study and contemplation to readily duplicate what will have been demonstrated in the upcoming days and weeks. Until then the only value to be gained from these demos is faith that miracles can happen.
Nicely put. I too see a dilemma in regard to being able to create a revolutionary new advance vs being able to harvest some reward.
It is a conundrum in regard to being asked to prove by sharing (and thus potentially giving away) vs showing in a controlled fashion while seeking to establish a rewards infrastructure.
This issue is in some respects insoluble in today's patenting environment.
If I don't have the technology being claimed "I demand you show proof" by describing its reproducibility.
If I am the developer of the technology I want to show you that it works but not give you the secrets 'on a plate' because I wants a supply-chain in place first to ensure I recover the investment and garner a good return on it !.
A good name for a LENR+ based development company is 'Conundrum Incorporated'.
Some further thoughts on this notion that DGT "owe it to the world" to quickly and immediately explain how they do it in full detail.Delete
Peter Gluck has lived long enough in a communist world to have some very useful opinions on the notion that someone with 'something' owes those who don't have it, a share. When I was a youngster we were told the story of "The little red hen"
(I am sure it is really a send up of Red fascism).
I tend to see this issue of ownership of an invention of this stature in a somewhat similar light. It is easy to demand someone else hand over what they have worked hard to create by employing the admonition that the developer "owes it to the world" even if many of us laughed at the concept and ridiculed the effort as impossible.
It comes across as like ... If I don't have this invention, I will pressure the inventor with every trick in the book from shaming him to verbally attacking him to praising him then to if necessary stealing or seizing it from him. Then God help anyone who tries the same with me.
The problem with insisting on the 'obligation to share' is that it is very very one-sided.
I believe that Defkalion's financial model is to demonstrate credibility in order to attract "partners" that want to integrate their LENR technology into the partner's product. I am unsure of this "obligation to share" or "owes it to the world" stuff - sometimes people over think things. Once the mass media embraces LENR, it will be like a gold rush - and do you feel that during an actual gold rush that miners "owe it to the world" and have an "obligation to share?" Frankly, it sounds preposterous. Find your own gold you stinkin claim jumper.Delete
Agreed re DGT's model. That is what I understand too. Info I have is they have been having visits from many 'big energy' companies who have been invited to observe their progress as they refined various aspects of their process.
IMHO, any one with an interest in 'new energy' as an alternative should sit up and take note. If they have a requirement for a heat device that will reduce costs or greatly improve efficiency of their energy devices then give DGT a call.
In reviewing the initial widespread comments on multiple blog sites (Vortex, ECN, ECW etc: ) I am seeing a very positive reaction to the demo.
For us pleb watchers, more demos will be very much appreciated esp if issues raised by sharp minded watchers, get dealt with.
I think NI World is the next demo & that I believe will showcase their 6th gen version of the device.
ICCF-18 does appear to have really opened a door.
Axil- "Until then the only value to be gained from these demos is faith that miracles can happen".ReplyDelete
That alone is enough to move things forward. Once the A bomb was used, several nations stared both reactor and bomb developments. This was done while the US still classified and held the research and theory a secret from others. Recognizing what is possible is enough for many to try to understand and advance. Often by doing so, others find others and even more productive paths to follow instead of development being confined to a single path. D2
The time for words is over. The time for demonstrations is over. It is time for successful commercialization. Reproducibility is necessary, and so is scalability, but for LENR to receive widespread support (allowing for quicker economic integration), it will have to be proven to produce a viable product. Enter Leonardo. Their American factory has already produced its first unit, and a credible third-party verification has already been published - which really don't matter, as I've said above, unless they produce a viable commercial product. Then the fun really begins, with mass media attention and many more players with deep pockets joining the LENR R&D.ReplyDelete
How do you 'know' this as a fact ?
" Their American factory has already produced its first unit"
Is it because you were there, or you participated or because someone with a history of misstatements told you it happened ?
Too many of us confuse opinion with accepted fact.
Based on Axil July 21, 2013 at 10:06 PM, DGT has eclipsed Leonardo Corp E-CAT and associated technology.ReplyDelete
It is unclear to me if there is enough information for any individual to make such claim or for that matter as to whether there is a stable high power LENR implementation for demonstration and ultimately suitable for commercialization.
One Demo does not make a product but can spark an industry (thanks in part to F&P).
Beg your pardon.ReplyDelete
Any good answer to this sir?