Motto
Stop the habit of wishful thinking and start
the habit of thoughtful wishes. (Mary Martin)
LENR itself- at birth was considered kind of analogy of hot
fusion, paradoxically taking place in impossible mild conditions. The history
of the field has generated other analogies too.
It is true however not directly useful or inspiring or
relevant that “cold fusion is for hot fusion what biochemistry is to chemistry”
as Chris Tinsley has wisely stated- not always a reason to happiness.
LENR was compared with very successful technologies
having
difficult start-up periods as aviation or transistors, a
noble, over-optimistic and inspiring idea that also has not helped much,
realistically speaking. Success was not contagious.
Pragmatically and philosophically LENR is very similar
with High Temperature Super-Conductivity; however HTSC is successful and
prosperous, while LENR is- the contrary.
Who dares to state that LENR is understood, is under
control and the best way to convert it in an important energy source is already
known? Painfully rhetorical question having only fragments of answers...
One morning, last week, during processing my e-mails, I
found this paper:
and I suddenly realized- “but this is about LENR!” The
authors speak about management, more specifically management in trouble;
however the obstacles, barriers and problems are those
of LENR, this is a new, inspiring analogy for LENR.
Surely you remember that I have stated many times that technology, management
and leadership are the best sources for the modern philosophy, realistic and
pragmatic.
See the introductory, PROBLEM, part of the paper:
Managing baffles us with its complexity. Leaders
looking to improve managing do not know where to start, much less where to
finish. So even though the gales of creative destruction continually threaten
their enterprises, they do not necessarily see radically revising their
managing as the obvious solution. But that’s exactly what their enterprises
need.
Let’s translate this in LENR-ese, not very rigorously,
following the original text, but emphasizing our situation and mentality:
“LENR baffles us with its complexity, ambiguity,
uncertainty
and volatility. It is slippery like an eel. Scientists,
after- soon 26- years of intensive and creative efforts, still do not know the
basics of this seemingly unmanageable process and are far from knowing how it
can be tamed and put to useful work. So even if the threat of extinction or of
degeneration in a lab curiosity is serious, but not immediate, the theories and
approaches considered are not changing in a really radical manner, old myths
and anecdotes and gurus remain dominant and authoritative. Changes coming from
outside the community are accepted with difficulty.”
The leadership paper continues with:
“In his recent HBR article, Gary Hamel described
traditional-enterprise ailments as being inertial, incremental, and insipid. He
goes on to point out, “Until we challenge our foundational beliefs, we won’t be
able to build organizations that are substantially more capable than the ones
we have today.” How true! But it’s hard to challenge current beliefs when
managing itself remains a bit of a mystery.”
I am amazed by adequate words as this “inertial,
incremental, and insipid” – in the case of LENR being so valid for,
respectively, approach-, progress- and group mentality.
Or for the “foundational beliefs” – never seriously
questioned.
The HBR paper continues to describe the weaknesses of the
management and of the enterprises when “managing itself remains a bit
of a mystery.” LENR is even more a
mystery.
I am enchanted (but not happy) to see that the paper
speaks about “an actionable framework for managing” exactly as I have
shown that for LENR we lack but need a new “actionable system of parameters” http://egooutpeters.blogspot.ro/2014/09/lenr-needs-actionable-parameters.html
The HBR opus also asks for “vitalization rather than
optimization”; for LENR this is even more radical –it needs
“resurrection not systematic improvement, that does not work”.
Creative destruction – in the case of LENR is a
pre-condition of change and survival. Management needs a good framework to make
sense of it; LENR is in a very similar situation. The existing explanations –
ambitiously called theories do not make sense of it.
Read please the details specific for management in the
paper
The Problem part is easier to understand and the
management-in-trouble/ LENR similarity is sound and sure. The Solution part
needs more effort – it is more about inspiration than of direct learning and
application.
THE SOLUTION FOR MANAGEMENT
The solution for management is based on (1) economic value creation – (2)
accepting the challenge that an enterprise ought to be able to thrive forever,
if it chooses to. The true Solution for LENR is 1) intense and reliable
energy creation 2) conquering a great segment of the world’s energy market, replacing
fossils and dwarfing the price of energy.
For achieving the desired solution for management the
following laws must be applied – all of them, laws of: Potential, Meaning,
Creativity, Learning, Humanity, Vitality, Coherence
Short description of the laws- from the HBR paper:
The Law of Potential: Only the enterprise that unleashes
potential, through meeting its workers’ innate needs, induces human engagement
to its fullest.
The Law of Meaning: Only the enterprise that infuses meaning,
through a shared purpose, effects alignment among fully engaged workers.
The Law of Creativity: Only the enterprise that liberates
creativity, through applying intuition and exercising free will, regularly
discovers opportunities for surprising wealth-producing innovations.
The Law of Learning: Only the enterprise that invigorates
learning – through exploring, exploiting, and orchestrating – generates the
knowledge necessary to persistently create new value among infinite
possibilities.
The Law of Humanity: Only the enterprise that enriches humanity,
through the knowledge embedded in its business activities, creates offerings of
unquestionable economic value.
The Law of Vitality: Only the enterprise that attains vitality,
through its incessant destructive recreation, produces the wealth necessary to
survive.
The Law of Coherence: Only the enterprise that sustains coherence
in all its aspects, through ongoing orchestration, regenerates itself to thrive
indefinitely.
This is a complete set of laws.
THE SOLUTION FOR LENR
In my opinion/thinking/LENR philosophy, our field needs
other laws, namely of: Otherness, Diversity.
Complexity, Metamorphosis, Creativity, Dynamicity- with some unavoidable superposition
and repetitions in the definitions and descriptions.
The Law of Otherness.
Only by understanding that LENR is an unprecedented case
of a brand new (newly discovered, in urgent need to be recognized) science that
adds to the established science and does not contradicts it- can be elaborated
an efficient development strategy for it.
It is necessary to build a realistic vision of the field,
how it was born in the most unfortunate conditions and has grown rather old
(but not grown up) in a very hostile environment. It is oppressed but also
self-limited science that has to be re-written from the basics.
LENR is a new branch of science and technology that has
been completely misunderstood from its very start. It was discussed if it does
respect or not the existing laws of physics when actually it goes much beyond
this to a lot of new laws of not only physics but also materials science and
technology. The most adequate metaphor of LENR was created in its 18th
year of existence: Black Swan (N.N. Taleb’s book published in 2007) - something
surprisingly, unpredictably and uniquely new, very different from anything
known before. See please the guest editorial by Alain Coetmeur: http://egooutpeters.blogspot.ro/2013/09/nassim-nicholas-taleb-and-cold-fusion_5.html
Bad luck- the Black Swan was seen just as a new type of
Nuclear Goose and this is not true.
LENR can appear in many places, in diverse forms but it
has been found in the worst circumstances possible most inadequate for
technological progress- without radical changes.
It exists a very simple but inexorable rule:
wet or not fully degassed metallic surfaces cannot work
reliably in LENR and therefore the cradle of it, the electrolytic PdD cell
cannot solve the vital problems of reproducibility and scale up. The F&P
Cell’s great historical merit is that it has demonstrated the very existence of
LENR (excess heat) but it cannot be used for developing any kind of practical
applications. [For the time given this is not more than my personal opinion, shared
by few friends however Ego Out is my own porta-voce]
The skeptics and dogmatics have attacked LENR for
violating of the sacrosanct Laws of Physics and because it pretends to be a
nuclear phenomenon while the “believers” have defended it trying to show that
the standard Laws of Physics are respected; this war had very destructive
consequences for the field- bad reputation, reduced funding, ostracization from
the high impact journals. Within the initially developed paradigm, LENR’s
situation is hopeless despite the immense still unexplored potential.
Essence of the Law of Otherness:
LENR IS NOT WHAT IT SEEMS TO BE.
The Law of Complexity.
Only by accepting the exceptional, broad and deep
complexity of LENR, progress in the field becomes a reality.
LENR is a matter too complex to be let to the physicists
alone. It needs very broad multi- and trans-disciplinarity. It belongs to
chemistry, physics, materials science, nanotechnology, engineering, all largo
sensu and in very intricate ways No single theory can explain LENR that is a
multi-stage, multi-step, non-linear combination of phenomena – it needs a bunch
of diverse theories to be understood. The single-theory, search for a
simplistic LENR solution was/is doing a lot of harm; simplicity is a sure
recipe for disaster in the VUCA World of LENR: http://egooutpeters.blogspot.ro/2014/07/the-vuca-world-of-lenr-how-long-it-will.html Simplicity is the most toxic label that can
be applied to LENR.
One of the sources of complexity of LENR is that it is
not only, not entirely, not ‘as usual’- nuclear. The skeptics are right in the
sense that it is not fusion. The phenomena are: pre-nuclear, nuclear-and
post-nuclear; soon many institutes will develop long range research plans for
all these subdivisions of LENR.
Essence of the Law of complexity:
LENR IS MUCH MORE THAN IT SEEMS
TO BE.
The Law of Diversity.
Only by systematic discovery and exploration of the
numerous variants and forms of LENR via experimental work will we able to construct
the most useful forms of LENR and (after solving the existential problems) will
we get access to a richness of new scientific data and ideas.
LENR is actually HMDI – Hydrogen –Metal Deep Interaction
and, as Francesco Piantelli has stated it in practice,
the process does work not only with nickel, but with all transition metals.
Specific results will be obtained for example with W
having very high melting temperature, with Fe- the cheapest, Ti- very light
one, Cr- the “faiblesse” of our friend Stoyan Sargoytchev.
The least “nuclear” metals- no dangerous radiation will
prevail
for domestic applications. Think about metal mixtures and
alloys- how many possibilities! Take in consideration the metal-support
interaction well known from catalysis.
The Defkalion Principle: “make hydrogen more reactive and
the metal more receptive” will be applied in various forms.
We already know that LENR has a broad range of working
temperatures- a new factor of diversity, and of exclusion of the
wet cells, too cold for reliable results.
I bet that there will be a lot of different species of
LENR
with a splendid taxonomy: http://egooutpeters.blogspot.ro/2011/08/taxonomy-mon-amour.html
I am very curious
to see it so I will take care to connect my grave to the Internet.
The essence of the Law of Diversity:
LENR APPEARS IN A PLURALITY OF
FORMS
The Law of Metamorphosis.
Only by profound transformative changes, the initially
discovered form of LENR can be converted in an useful source of energy.
The field does not grow by maturation, slow systematic
improvements but by very sudden, radical changes (for management it is about
creative destruction- here it is better to use “metamorphosis”0. Thus the weak
and unreliable LENR process is converted in a powerful massive excess heat
release>
It is a 2-4 orders of magnitude difference between the
faint LENR and the intense form I named LENR+.
Everything we have learned about Pd D cold fusion LENR is
not applicable to LENR+ that is a different species. It is the great merit of
Andrea Rossi to have discovered and demonstrated the possibility of LENR+- a
decisive step to a commercial energy generator. If LENR classic is the
Fleischmann-Pons Effect, LENR+ is the Andrea Rossi Effect.
Hundred years from now it will be forgotten that Rossi
was rather hesitant and slow in achieving control over that massive heat
release an overly difficult task of engineering, in case you do not use the best
method to trigger and stimulate LENR+.
(I am well aware that the dichotomy LENR/LENR+ again
belongs, for the time given- to my personal opinion; in the LENR community the
LENR+ deniers still dominate)
The essence of Law
of Metamorphosis:
LENR BECOMES USEFUL ONLY VIA A
GREAT QYUALITATIVE LEAP TO LENR+.
The Law of Creativity.
Only by invention, advanced engineering and innovation
can be metamorphosed the initial LENR in the energy source based on LENR+.
LENR was discovered, LENR+ has to be invented, in
multiple forms.
The initially discovered form of LENR is not adequate neither
for scientific study in depth nor for technological development; a new one had
to be created and this is LENR+.
LENR is studied with the scientific method, LENR+ is
solved by combining science and technology- engineering is the key.
The theories of LENR+ are not only descriptive,
explicative, prohibitive or even predictive- they are also productive telling
what and how must we do to put LENR+ to work for us as a useful source of
energy.
The essence of the Law of Creativity.
THE USEFUL FORMS OF LENR+ ARE
PRODUCTS OF HUMAN CREATIVITY.
The Law of Dynamicity.
Only by creating intensively dynamic systems can we build
LENR+ energy sources.
LENR is based on static preformed active sites at low
(<100C) temperatures, LENR+ happens in dynamic continuously formed active
sites at high (>200 C) temperatures.
LENR+ is an application of Nanoplasmonics- a very dynamic
new science in multiple senses. It is about dynamics on the metal surfaces and
about the dynamics of these surfaces, themselves...
This dynamics generates and adds to complexity,
diversity, creativity, makes the technological metamorphosis possible.
See please a simple description here:
Two final predictions:
a) Probably the fine paper re Management will be more
successful, popular and applied in practice then my adaptation of it for LENR-
smelling of speculation and dissent. LENR has only minor and transient
problems, LENR+ is just a myth. Time to sharpen the tools in my box as NY would
say. Advancing boldly from “errare humanum est” to “perseverare diabolicum.”
b) LENR is only a provisional name; the useful form of
the deep interaction of hydrogen with transition metals is a group of phenomena
very different from what we think now about PdD generated LENR.
This could be named the Law of Otherness+ of LENR+
Peter
