Thursday, January 20, 2011

How facts backfire

I just have found this very relevant article:
http://www.boston.com/bostonglobe/ideas/articles/2010/07/11/how_facts_backfire/?page=full

at David Gurteen Knowledge Letter -one of my favorite sources of more-than-information.

The paper expalins why the the things have a natural trend to go from bad to worse.
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6 comments:

  1. UnknownJanuary 21, 2011 at 12:04 PM

    The title is misleading, as 'facts' are not living entitles capable of 'backfiring'. It has been said that "figures don't lie, but liars can figurea". Selecting "facts" to advance agendas is like selecting jurors favorable to a client, or setting rules for a 'formal, logical' discussion. Humans in growing up grasp data suppoted their survival and self-worth, becoming part of what "I" am. Data, "facts" which conflict with that self-image threaten survival [I was wrong] and may be rejected. Polls are unreliable as the phrasing of the question influences the answer; the poll may be structured to "prove" any agenda.

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  2. AnonymousJanuary 21, 2011 at 12:18 PM

    Thank you, dear Mike!
    The same situation is with memes,that are also not living entities, however they dominate us, create memecracies and sometimes lead to mass killings.

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  3. tyyAugust 27, 2014 at 4:10 AM

    It is the human mind that backfires.

    The funny thing is, how true believers are capable of turning the facts of reality upside down.

    Take for example, LENR/Cold fusion. Assuming all the "evidence" the believers supposedly have collected, It should be trivial by now to build the damn thing.

    But we are still waiting for someone to brew a cup of coffee with LENR powered moccamaster while explaining how the gizmo is supposed to work. Not with hoodge-poodge technobabble, but with actual physical theory.

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    Replies
    1. AnonymousAugust 27, 2014 at 8:49 AM

      Dear TYY,
      The facts must be considered as they are not as we wish or imagine they are. And have to be measured- quantitative judgment.
      For classic LENR (PdD electro-chemical) the effect is real beyond any doubt however inherently weak, a few watts, you can brew a cup of blood for a mosquito, a good mocca needs more. The heat effect has to be enhanced as at Rossi and DGT- this is the equivalent of n metamorphosis -see please e.g. this list of 40 papers I wrote in 2014 about the great difference between LENR (underdeveloped) and LENR+ (enhanced) On my blog please read the guest ppers by AXIL for the theory part. It will not be easy to accept what we say butconfirmations willl come very soon.
      Peter

      LIST OF NEW PARADIGM OF LENR PAPERS PUBLISHED IN 2014.

      [1] COULOMB AND OTHER BARRIERS FOR LENR http://egooutpeters.blogspot.ro/2013/01/coulomb-and-other-barriers-for-lenr.html

      [2] STRATEGIC PRINCIPLES OF LENR AND THEIR IMPLICATIONS. http://egooutpeters.blogspot.ro/2013/02/strategic-principles-of-lenr-and-their.html

      [3] SEQUEL TO LENR STRATEGIC PRINCIPLES. THE LIMITS OF A LENR THEORY http://egooutpeters.blogspot.ro/2013/02/sequel-to-lenr-strategic-principles.html

      [4] Explaining the LENR Pdisaster http://egooutpeters.blogspot.ro/2013/02/explaining-lenr-pdisaster.html

      [5] LENR+ IS NOT A SONG, IT IS AN OPERA! http://egooutpeters.blogspot.ro/2013/03/lenr-is-not-asong-it-is-opera-advent-of.html

      [6] A MOTTO FOR ICCF-19 http://egooutpeters.blogspot.ro/2013/03/a-motto-for-iccf-19.html ”Solving the useful heat source problem.”

      [7] Early History of Cold Fusion, Three Miracles and Three Marks. http://egooutpeters.blogspot.ro/2013/03/early-history-of-cold-fusion-three.html

      [8] 24 YEARS OF HEROIC HISTORY, MANY YEARS OF GLORIOUS FUTURE http://egooutpeters.blogspot.ro/2013/03/24-years-of-heroic-history-many-years.html

      [9] THE ROOT OF THE LENR PROBLEM and THE STEM OF THE SOLUTION. http://egooutpeters.blogspot.ro/2013/03/the-root-of-lenr-problem-and-stem-of.html

      [10] Rethinking (continuously) and understanding (deeply) LENR+- just a new episode. http://egooutpeters.blogspot.ro/2013/04/rethinking-continuously-and.html

      [11] SCIENCE OR ENGINEERING? SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING! http://egooutpeters.blogspot.ro/2013/04/science-or-engineering-science-and.html

      [12] ACTIVE SITES AND N.A.E http://egooutpeters.blogspot.ro/2013/05/active-sites-and-nae.html

      [13] A SERIOUS SITE RAISES THE MOST SERIOUS PROBLEM http://egooutpeters.blogspot.ro/2013/06/a-serious-site-raises-most-serious.html

      [14] LENR AND SCIENTISM. http://egooutpeters.blogspot.ro/2013/06/lenr-and-scientism.html

      [15] SCIENTISM-1, GLUCK-0; the first half. http://egooutpeters.blogspot.ro/2013/06/scientism-1-gluck-0-first-half.html

      [16] HOW LENR TECHNOLOGY FIRST? http://egooutpeters.blogspot.ro/2013/06/how-lenr-technology-first.html

      [17] NUCLEAR HAMBURGER? http://egooutpeters.blogspot.ro/2013/07/nuclear-hamburger.html

      [18] RE-THINKING THE SCIENTIFIC METHOD. http://egooutpeters.blogspot.ro/2013/07/re-thinking-scientific-method.html

      [19] LENR- VERY NECESSARY CHANGES http://egooutpeters.blogspot.ro/2013/08/lenr-very-necessary-changes.html

      [20] WHY Pd-D LENR WILL NEVER WORK COMMERCIALLY: http://egooutpeters.blogspot.ro/2013/08/why-pd-d-lenr-will-never-work.html

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    2. AnonymousAugust 27, 2014 at 8:50 AM

      second part of paper list

      [21] SOME REASONS WHY LENR N.A.E. CANNOT BE CRACKS. http://egooutpeters.blogspot.ro/2013/08/some-reasons-why-lenr-nae-cannot-be.html

      [22] CONTINUING TO CRACK THE ‘CRACK IS N.A.E.’ THEORY: http://egooutpeters.blogspot.ro/2013/08/continuing-to-crack-crack-is-nae-theory.html

      [23] IDEAS AND MODES OF THINKING FOR SOLVING THE LENR PROBLEM. I. THINKING IN BLACK AND WHITE. http://egooutpeters.blogspot.ro/2013/08/ideas-and-modes-of-thinking-for-solving.html

      [24] IDEAS AND MODES OF THINKING FOR SOLVING THE LENR PROBLEM. II ABOUT REALITY DENIAL http://egooutpeters.blogspot.ro/2013/08/ideas-and-modes-of-thinking-for-solving_30.html

      [25] EVERYTHING I KNEW ABOUT COLD FUSION WAS WRONG http://egooutpeters.blogspot.ro/2013/09/everything-i-knew-about-cold-fusion-was.html

      26] Active sites vs. NAE, is there a priority? http://egooutpeters.blogspot.ro/2013/10/active-sites-vs-nae-is-there-priority_1.html

      [27] HOW “COLD FUSION” FITS IN MY GRAND VISION OF EXISTENCE..AND A MIRACLE. http://egooutpeters.blogspot.ro/2013/10/how-cold-fusion-fits-in-my-grand-vision.html

      [28] MY DIAGNOSIS FOR THE ILLNESS OF COLD FUSION http://egooutpeters.blogspot.ro/2013/11/my-diagnosis-for-illness-of-cold-fusion.html

      [29] COLD FUSION NEEDS A NEW PARADIGM NOW. http://egooutpeters.blogspot.ro/2013/11/cold-fusion-needs-new-paradigm-now.html

      [30] COLD FUSION, WHAT NOW? http://egooutpeters.blogspot.ro/2013/12/cold-fusion-what-now.html

      [31] ENGINEERING IS THE WAY TO MAKE LENR USEFUL. (First part) http://egooutpeters.blogspot.ro/2014/01/engineering-is-way-to-make-lenr-useful.html it is about reproducibility

      [32] WHY COMPLEXITY IS SO SIMILAR TO CHOLESTEROL? http://egooutpeters.blogspot.ro/2014/01/why-complexity-is-so-similar-to.html it is about complexity

      [33] HOW LONG WILL COLD FUSION’S 25 YEARS WAR LAST? http://egooutpeters.blogspot.ro/2014/03/how-long-will-cold-fusions-25years-war.html it is about MIT 25 Anniv

      [34] WHAT WOULD THEY SAY TODAY? http://egooutpeters.blogspot.ro/2014/05/what-would-they-say-today.html it is about rhetoric discontent

      [35] THE VUCA WORLD OF LENR, HOW LONG IT WILL LAST? http://egooutpeters.blogspot.ro/2014/07/the-vuca-world-of-lenr-how-long-it-will.html it is about VUCA weaknesses

      [36] PAST (COLD FUSION) VERSUS FUTURE (HENI) IN LENR. (PRESENT) http://egooutpeters.blogspot.ro/2014/07/past-cold-fusion-versus-future-heni-in.html it say the future very ifferent from the past

      [37] LENR- THEORIES OR PRINCIPLES? http://egooutpeters.blogspot.ro/2014/07/lenr-theories-or-principles.html it is about the important principles technological principles better than theories, critique of Staorm’s theory

      [38] ABOUT SLOW PROGRESS AND CRAZY PREDICTIONS. http://egooutpeters.blogspot.ro/2014/07/about-slow-progress-and-crazy.html it is about slow progress and it gives my Why Technology first? 1995 article.

      [39] LENR WANTS TO GROW UP
      http://egooutpeters.blogspot.ro/2014/08/lenr-wants-to-grow-up.html it is about probletence in the field.

      [40] LENR’S FUTURE MATTERS MORE THAN ITS PAST
      http://egooutpeters.blogspot.ro/2014/08/lenrs-future-matters-more-than-its-past.html




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    3. Alain_CoAugust 27, 2014 at 11:14 AM

      @tyy
      it seems you are uninfoirmed of the complexity to trigger LENr and also of the mass of sucessful experiments.



      by the way the industrial projects in progress match, with more modesty of engineer, your main idea...

      LENR is like making fire for a cro-magnon tribe. it is very badly understood process, with kitchen recipe, no real theory, mny factors that can make things go well of bad.
      Recently i learned that when trying to make fire with two piece of wood (one flat with a hole, and one pencil shaped) the secret was to have a slit in the unpierced hole... no slit, no fire.

      same trick were discovered, and if you read (you never read sure) the recent papers of ENEA showing the impact of metalurgy on F&P style experiments success, you will not talk like that.

      https://mospace.umsystem.edu/xmlui/bitstream/handle/10355/36833/ExcessPowerDuringElectrochemical.pdf?sequence=1

      transistors are well know technology but you have to be a first class lab to make a good industrial grade transitor.

      your tea kettle is pathetic

      as you say it is funny to see how true deniar are capable of turning the facts of reality upside down.

      you have facing you hundreds of papers, better understanding of the challenge of the experiments, somme fair repeatability, some industrial project with crops and tycoons supporting them, and on you side you have 4 refuted abandonned papers by Lewis, hansen, Morrison, Wilson, who flee when they had to answer painful question showing their errors.

      the only cause of the consensus is a cascade of terror launched by jokes and nasty accusation of misconducts, based on no evidence, plus list of bad experiments and failed experimenst that incompetent amateur epistemology students (physicists) interpreted as something else failures.

      bring me 153 evidence that challenge the peer reviewed positive results on heat, and maybe we could discuss. for now you have nothing else innuendo, and I agree consensus of uninformed.

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